Prices Up, Optimism Down — May's NFIB Catches Small Business in a Squeeze

Key Trends

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3 — its lowest reading since October 2024 and the third consecutive month below the 52-year historical average of 98.0, per data released June 9.
• Price pressure is re-accelerating: the net share of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since March 2023; plans to raise prices also hit the highest level since July 2022.
• 70% of small business owners reported supply chain disruptions to some degree in May, up 6 points from April — reversing a months-long stabilization trend and pointing to renewed tariff pass-through pressure on imported inputs.
• The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points to 91, well above its historical average of 68; labor costs are now the single most important problem for 14% of owners, up 5 points from April and the highest reading in the survey’s history.
• 29% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in May, down 5 points from April and the lowest since May 2020 — suggesting demand for workers is cooling faster than labor supply is improving.

Notable Businesses & Launches

• The SBA formally launched the Make Onshoring Great Again Portal, a free supplier-matching tool connecting small businesses to more than one million domestic producers — the operational centerpiece of the agency’s explicit manufacturing-first pivot.
• The SBA established two new internal offices — the Faith Office and the Office of Rural Affairs — as part of its June 5 reorganization, extending formal program outreach to constituencies historically underserved by the prior agency structure.
• Jobber Grants is offering $10,000–$100,000 for blue-collar small businesses with an application deadline of June 11 — among the most immediately actionable grant opportunities for trade-focused operators this week.
• The SBA’s Office of Advocacy marked 50 years as the agency’s statutory voice in federal rulemaking (June 4) — a milestone that lands amid the highest volume of access-narrowing rule changes the office has had to navigate in a single year.

Funding & Investment

• Juno, a CPA-founded startup automating tax returns for small business accounting firms, raised $12 million in seed funding — a signal that AI-native tools targeting the underserved SMB accounting workflow are beginning to attract venture capital.
• Slash Financial raised a $100 million Series C at a $1.4 billion valuation, offering business accounts, cards, payments, and treasury tools targeting SMBs.

• The SBA announced a $50 million grant opportunity to fund up to 10 organizations providing training and technical assistance to small manufacturers through its Empower to Grow (E2G) program — applications remain open.
• Fintech investment overall posted more dollars in fewer deals in Q1 2026, a concentration pattern where capital is clustering around companies with proven SMB workflows and stronger unit economics rather than early-stage concept bets.

Regulatory & Economic Context

• The SBA announced an agency-wide reorganization on June 5, centralizing HR, legal, IT, and financial functions under shared-service offices — the latest step in a restructuring that cut the agency workforce by over 50% and reduced its operating budget by 33% in 2025.
• The SBA suspended 27,486 Ohio borrowers connected to an estimated $1.1 billion in suspected fraudulent pandemic-era loans — the largest single-state enforcement action of 2026, signaling sustained scrutiny of COVID-era lending.
• Bloomberg noted that May’s NFIB print erased “almost all of the gains seen since President Trump was elected for a second term,” framing the 18-month post-election optimism arc as now largely unwound.
• The spike in price-raising activity — at levels not seen since 2022–2023 — signals that tariff cost pass-through is actively flowing into consumer-facing prices, compressing margins for SMBs that buy from importers while competing locally on price.

Takeaway