Holding the Line: SBA's Record $10 Million Ceiling Meets a Fed That Won't Move

Key Trends

• Update: The Census Bureau’s June 2026 Business Formation Statistics show applications climbing again — 531,423 seasonally adjusted, up 1.1% from May’s 523,971 — with projected employer formations up 0.7% to 29,741. Formation activity has now accelerated for two straight months.

• Small-business importers are largely eating the tariff bill themselves: the New York Fed’s Liberty Street Economics finds roughly 80% of firms passed on at least some higher input costs while 60% absorbed part of the hit — often both — and firms with the steepest 2025 tariff exposure are the most pessimistic about 2026 hiring and revenue.

  Unverified

  A widely cited companion figure — that average monthly customs duty payments for affected small importers roughly tripled, from about $8,400 to $27,200 between January 2025 and January 2026 — is attributed to NSBA’s 2026 trade survey but could not be independently corroborated against NSBA’s own published materials.

Notable Businesses & Launches

• Square launched a ChatGPT app and Claude plugin on July 1, letting sellers surface menus, hours, and inventory directly inside AI shopping conversations at no added cost; the first cohort live is food-and-beverage sellers with active Square Online Ordering, alongside a parallel push to bring sellers into Amazon’s Alexa+.

• Update: Sysco’s $29.1 billion bid for Jetro Holdings (Restaurant Depot) is now under deeper federal scrutiny — the FTC issued a “second request” for additional documents on May 27, extending the antitrust review well past the state-official objections flagged here Wednesday.

Funding & Investment

• Vancouver’s JUDI.AI secured growth capital from Conexus Venture Capital’s $30M CVC Fund #2, with Oregon’s Unitus Community Credit Union also participating; the cash-flow underwriting platform, which has processed over $2 billion in small-business loan applications for credit unions, did not disclose deal size.

  Review

  “processed over $2 billion in small-business loan applications for credit unions” — self-reported company figure with no independent corroboration found — verify or add > [!unverified].

• Paris-based invoice financier Aria closed a €7 million Series A extension plus a €240 million securitization facility led by La Banque Postale’s venture arm and Nomura, pushing total equity raised to €22 million as it targets B2B platforms hit hardest by late payments.

Regulatory & Economic Context

• The SBA’s doubled loan ceiling took effect July 4: borrowers can now combine up to $5 million in 7(a) financing with $5 million in 504 financing for $10 million total — the highest cumulative SBA-backed limit in the agency’s history, up from $5 million.

• Update: The Fed’s June 16–17 minutes, released Wednesday, confirmed the committee held rates at 3.5%–3.75% despite a near-even split — nine members favoring at least one more hike, eight favoring no change, one favoring a cut. Chair Kevin Warsh called the internal debate a “family fight”; markets barely moved on the release.

  Review

  “held rates… despite a near-even split — nine members favoring at least one more hike, eight favoring no change, one favoring a cut” — independent reporting (CNBC, Fortune, Axios) describes the June decision as a unanimous 12-0 vote to hold, with the 9/8/1 split describing participants’ views on the appropriate rate path by December rather than a contested vote on the hold itself — verify against the primary minutes text and correct the framing.

Takeaway